How to Find Burn Morels – Terrain Based Predictions

The 2022 burn morel season is shaping up to be as good or better than any season in the last 5 years. The 2021 fires that guide our hunts were unusually widespread from Southern California up through Oregon, Washington, Idaho and Montana with each state having at least 10 excellent high-potential fires. These huge and widespread fires will offer abundance and a problem: where to start? With millions and millions of acres burned, the biggest challenge for many morel hunters will be where to start? Which fire? And which area in which fire?

As everyone knows, there are many maps out there that will show casual pickers where the burn perimeters are located. But they don’t really solve that primal problem of which fire to start with and where in the fire to focus your attentions. Of course at Modern Forager, this is what we do.

Get 2022 Burn Morel Maps >

This year we are rolling out several new maps to help pickers. We plan on releasing new features every week or so as we build them. Some of our maps, like the tree maps, are for expert pickers who want to locate specific tree types inside burns. This week we have an exciting new map concept for beginners and are really curious what you think: Prediction Maps.

NEW MAP FEATURE! Terrain Based Morel Prediction Maps

Our new terrain based Morel Prediction Maps use an algorithm to rate areas within each fire (in 30 meter sections) based on ideal terrain features and then color score the map. Bright yellow is best and equates to a burn morel “hot spot” – an area where we predict the morels will flourish.

Here is an example from the Big Hamlin fire in Oregon (a 19,000 acre fire – huge!):

Above Map: Morel Prediction Map from the Big Hamlin fire in Oregon from 2021. Bright yellow and yellow/green are the best, the lightest gray (appearing almost transparent in the map) is to be avoided entirely, and dark green/blue/gray is mediocre at best.

We put a lot of thought into what went into these maps. Predictions are composed of three primary terrain features:

  1. Tree Cover Density: We rated the tree cover on a scale of 0-3. Heavy tree cover is a positive.
  2. Slope: For general public accessibility, we rated any slope over 30% as zero. We especially like to find large areas of slope less than 15% for easy picking. Make no mistake though, morels don’t mind slope! But steep slopes are exhausting and dangerous for picking. Generally we avoid them if possible.
  3. Aspect: We rated anything with a North or Northerly aspect as high likelihood. Southern aspects got no points. East or West were rated as middling. This rating was the most discussed, since clearly all aspects produce when the weather is ideal. However in our experience, on an average picking day with average weather patterns seen in the West, Northerly slopes far outproduce.

There is more terrain data to uncover and bake into the maps. Our intention is to include these data points in the maps we will be releasing throughout March.

Stay tuned for the maps to include:

  • Elevation; While we definitely favor certain elevation ranges, the desired elevation range has variables like season, species/flush and location. For example, 6000 feet is too low in the Colorado Rockies, but, too high in Oregon for anything but July picking. 
  • Tree Species: The desired tree species change from region to region and are key to advanced pickers. For example, Douglas Fir may be very desirable in Arizona but less exciting in Oregon.
  • Burn Severity: I almost included this in the algorithm. However, while burn severity maps are highly useful, the data is not as reliable. Cloud cover can contaminate the results. I didn’t want to mess up the calculations. I will release burn severity maps separately next week. 

Let’s look at some closeups.

This map below is a zoomed in section of Big Hamlin. The color gradations are a bit easier to see:

The large yellow spot really stood out in our algorithm. Plus there is a lot of other bright yellow nearby and lots of surrounding pale green, which will also be pretty good.

When you compare it to the satellite picture, you can see that the heavy trees and good picking areas really line up well.

Normally we spend a lot of time studying the topo map, looking for areas that have the slopes and aspects we want. We look for slopes where the topography lines are spaced far apart. Aspects take more studying because Northerly and Southerly aspects are hard to tell apart without finding elevation markers. Clearly, the bright yellow areas on our prediction map are relatively flat for easy picking and also Northerly facing. This USFS topo map remains a big help to because it shows a lot of detail about access roads. A big warning to people using free maps – Google maps do not have this level of road detail.

We’ve taken big steps this year to add even more value into our burn morel hunting maps! We have a team of GIS experts pouring through the fire data so that we can set you up for success finding burn morels. Stay tuned each week for new and exciting things to come. 

Get 2022 Burn Morel Maps >

So what do you think? Let us know in the comments below.

 

 

Showing 18 comments
  • Sharoom
    Reply

    If we’ve already bought the digital map, will we have access to the new information as it comes out?

    • Trent Blizzard
      Reply

      Hi there – Yep, if you bought 2022 maps, you will see a new tab on all maps called “2022 Morel Hotspots” and another called “2022 Burn Severity”!

  • Renee Smoot
    Reply

    These maps, your work, and this blog are inducing so much excitement that we can hardly contain ourselves!! Although pouring over burn maps can be emotional based on what was lost, it is truly wonderful to experience new life that Mother Nature brings after these massive fires.
    -Renee & Laura
    @the.bush.babes (IG)

    • Trent Blizzard
      Reply

      Sharoom – absolutely, all of it!!

    • Trent Blizzard
      Reply

      AWESOME! But you are so right, it’s always complicated emotionally.

  • Bubba Osbourne
    Reply

    Couple this w/precip data, and presto, like magic… Mushrooms!

    • Trent Blizzard
      Reply

      I am working on how to add a snowpack and precip overlay… But, I have 4 or 5 other overlays on the list first: burn severity calculations, tree species, forest types, public/private land, elevation finders, enhanced road and trail (called MVUM) are all on the next month I hope. Maybe April!

  • Megan McLaughlin
    Reply

    This is a wonderful addition! I was so happy a few years ago when I discovered your burn maps. My husband and I pick morels every year. Before using your maps we would spent hours and hours studying burns ourselves. Including such aspects as elevations, tree coverage, and slope facings. Thank you so much for adding the extra this year.

    • Trent Blizzard
      Reply

      Thanks Megan! I am really working hard to up the game this year – I found a few GIS experts who are teaching me a lot of new things.

  • Kwon1962
    Reply

    I am excited to see the tree and predictive maps. Is there an estimated release date for Washintgon?

    • Trent Blizzard
      Reply

      The predictive maps came out a few days ago. The Tree maps and burn sererity maps will be out next week.

      Trent

  • Ken B from SOMA
    Reply

    Hey Trent, this is Amazing! I’ve been studying the maps all week trying to plan where to go. Looking forward to using this new data. Here in Northern California we have had about 7 weeks of drought conditions where the Caldor fire was, but it just got snow this week. Maybe more next week too. But further north the rain was more consistent. So it’s going to be interesting to see what happens, and when.

    Btw I use my lucky shroom hunting bag all the time!

    • Trent Blizzard
      Reply

      Ken – thanks for the kind words – we are in Sea Ranch currently, for a quick visit, and it is pretty dry, no shrooms for sure. The snow pack looks promising in the mountains though, so I am hopeful that after the melt, we get just. bit more rain to activate those mountain morels. Hoping for rain in California though tends to cause disappointment. We have a few more maps coming soon, i think you will like those too.

      • Ken B at SOMA
        Reply

        Omg I was up at Salt Point today, found a nice repandum, but just one. If you’re around town maybe I can join you for coffee, or a foray.

  • Don
    Reply

    Does anyone have any recommendations for getting the burn color coding and the USFS data on the same screen versus toggling between the two? Is that something you are working on Trent?

    • Trent Blizzard
      Reply

      Don, no, sorry, a toggle is required… I have it as a “basemap” and my map system currently only allows one basemap at a time

pingbacks / trackbacks
  • […] added a super cool new feature this year – morel hot spot prediction maps. We created an algorithm that uses terrain data such as tree cover, tree type, elevation, and […]

  • […] addition to burn severity, it is fun to cross-reference the perimeter with our Morel Probability Map (which predicts morel likelihood based on terrain factors like tree cover, aspect and slope), a […]

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